HON MUSALIA MUDAVADI'S TIME IS 2022
Opinion by George Mulama.
However, the absence of a section of influential politicians such as Bungoma senator and Ford Kenya leader, Moses Wetangula poured cold water on the whole event and aggravated the debate on who truly is the Luhya Kingpin.
After Atwoli’s coronation, Bungoma Senator and Ford Kenya chairman rubbished the whole event claiming Atwoli did not have the mandate to crown a Luhya spokesperson while former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale warned the COTU boss that he would not succeed in imposing Raila Odinga on the Luhya people through moulding Mudavadi to be his pawn.
To date, many years after the event, there is still a fierce debate on who rightly deserves the Kingpin tag going into the 2022 polls.
Is it Mudavadi’s to keep or can it be snatched from him based on his political alignments and be given to alternative politicians like - Kakamega County Governor, Wycliffe Oparanya or Bungoma Senator Moses Wetangula? Do political bigwigs like Raila Odinga need Luhya intermediaries to win the Western votes this 2022?
A narrative of the past political expeditions among the Luhya politicians since the onset of multiparty democracy in 1992 and a fusion with the present occurrences can help shed light on the most probable figure that might emerge as the Luhya Kingpin going into the 2022 general elections.
Shikuku vs Khalwale
The year 1992 marked the first time that Kenyans were offered a chance to vote for a President after the repeal of Section 2 (a) of the constitution which had made Kenya a one party state.
The general election set the foundations of ethnic voting with big communities voting for their own.
The Luhya were the only big tribe without a candidate. Moi, Matiba and Jaramogi got the majority of the Western vote in that respective order. From the onset, big communities had Kingpins as Luhyas started on the wrong foot, relying mostly on point men who delivered the vote to ‘others’ in strategic areas.
Martin Shikuku popularly referred to as ‘The People’s Watchman’ a firebrand politician from Butere mobilized the votes for Matiba’s Ford – Asili, managing a 36.3% of the total Western vote, the second highest. This thrust Shikuku into the national limelight and tempted him to vie for the Presidency in 1997 after falling out with Matiba.
He not only performed dismally but also lost his seat to a newcomer and political scientist Dr. Amukowa Anangwe. Shikuku’s political demise amplified the vanity of opposition politics.
The fact that he had neither the financial muscle nor a big family name accelerated his fall and caged his political stature. Shikuku’s style of politics is reminiscent of the former Kakamega Senator Boni Khalwale, a charismatic speaker (Kimunya must go memories) whose major undoing is his ‘modest’ development profile and poor uninformed political alignments. It is yet to be seen whether his political fortunes will go south post 2022. Simply put, Khalwale is nowhere close to being considered a Luhya Kingpin. He is a long shot.
The Wamalwas Vs Wetangula/OparanyaMichael Kijana Wamalwa had all the trappings that Shikuku lacked. His father was a politician, he had modest financial fortunes and even though charismatic, and one of the finest orators the country has ever produced, his politics were not as combative as Shikuku’s.
This made him approachable and could therefore work with politicians on both sides of the aisle. Wamalwa rode on the legacy of the late Masinde Muliro and leaned towards Jaramogi, mobilizing 17.9% of the total Western vote in the 1992 Presidential poll, the third highest. Yet it is his antagonism with Raila, Jaramogi’s son, which is most memorable.
Even though he wrestled Raila from grabbing Ford Kenya, Raila abandoned the party relegating it to a Western party majorly embraced in Wamalwa’s strongholds in Bungoma and parts of Transzoia.
That Ford Kenya was a tribal party was demonstrated when in the 1997 elections, Wamalwa finished a distant fourth with his support base being among his tribesmen in Bungoma and parts of Transzoia, though to date; no other Luhya has ever surpassed his vote total of 505K votes. He would later get the Vice President slot but unfortunately succumbed to illness without being put to the test on his ability to galvanise the Western vote.
Wamalwa’s younger brother, Eugene has had an impressive foray into politics. He shares the eloquence of his brother and commands some respect in Western politics having served in high ranking positions in government. He raised his profile by endorsing Mudavadi’s 2013 presidential bid and introducing him to the electorate in Bungoma and Transzoia where Mudavadi had little name recognition. Eugene is one of the Luhya politicians with a bright political future and in some years to come, questions will be asked whether he can fit the tag of the Luhya Kingpin. In Wamalwa’s league are Wetangula and Oparanya who are jostling and positioning themselves for the ‘Kingpin’ status just in case Mudavadi falters along the way. Mudavadi vs Raila
Mudavadi was thrust into politics in 1989 by late president Moi at a young age after the demise of his father, Moses Mudamba Mudavadi – a prominent and influential figure in both Kenyatta’s and Moi’s regimes. Mudamba replaced Masinde Muliro after the latter was sacked from Kenyatta’s cabinet for voting against a government report into the murder of JM Kariuki.
During the 1992 general elections, Musalia galvanized support for Moi who was vying on a Kanu ticket and managed a 40.9% vote in Western, the highest vote. He would stick with Moi in 1997 to the detriment of Wamalwa, his fellow Luhya who was contesting the Presidency, a decision that heightened the rivalry between Wamalwa’s and Mudavadi’s sub-tribes.
Mudavadi was however to be taught the harshest political lesson of his life when he succumbed to pressure from Moi and accepted to be the running mate to Uhuru Kenyatta – President Moi’s anointed successor in the 2002 elections.
His ticket lost and to make matters worse he lost his parliamentary seat to Narc’s Moses Akaranga.In 2007, he regrouped to ODM and became Raila Odinga’s running mate in a controversial poll that led to a coalition government. Raila had established a name for himself in Luhya politics after the 2002 tsunami when NARC swept its way to power.
To connect to the Luhya people more, Raila claimed that his lineage could be traced to the Nabongo royalty in the Wanga Kingdom, a claim that has since been proven to be true.It is such popular politics that thrust Raila into an enviable role in Luhya politics with his party scooping a huge number of seats in 2013 in the entire Luhya land. It can therefore be argued that in 2013, Raila enjoyed overwhelming support from the Luhya nation and he cut an image of a revered national figure. A string of misfortunes followed Mudavadi’s first stab for the Presidency and he would finish third with a paltry 3.9% of the total vote and a disappointing 29.14 of the Western vote to Raila’s 62.22%.
Just like Wamalwa’s foray in 1993 ultimately elevated his political stature, Mudavadi’s 2013 attempt at the Presidency elevated his profile and no matter what, he is assured of a higher vote were he to vie in 2022 and he would possibly upset Wamalwa’s 1992 numbers.2017 was a rebound year for Mudavadi with his ANC Party snatching most of the available MNA seats from ODM, especially in Kakamega County, an indicator that Mudavadi’s profile has significantly begun transcending his sub-tribe.
With some Luhya people generally fatigued from their constant support for Odinga that has not borne fruit, and an ODM party that has lost taste ANC is upbeat that in the 2022 polls, it could replicate its 2017 performance and make forays in Busia County, the only remaining ODM stronghold in Western.The Presidential race will be a different contest altogether. If Raila Odinga is backed by Uhuru, it will be a massive psychological blow to not only Mudavadi’s overall chances for the Presidency but also his overall vote margin in Western, for it is no secret that Raila still enjoys considerable support in Western.
But if Mudavadi is supported by either Uhuru or Ruto the Luhya people will galvanise around him as he will pose a real threat to the other contestants and have a real chance of becoming President and becoming a source of pride to the Luhya people.
It will be inevitable that Wyclifffe Musalia Mudavadi will be the de facto Kingpin of the Luhya people and Raila Odinga will be left with ‘crumbs’ as votes. However, the bigger question that still lingers is: Could Mudavadi be an ace card for either Kenyatta or Ruto? Time will tell.
The Author is a commentator on social matters.
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